Fax nightmares: Poisson distributions and conditional probabilities

Last night, I had a dream that I had a notice on my answering machine with instructions on how to deliver a fax. As it turns out, I have not had a fax machine connected to my phone for many years now and, now that I think about it, although I have sent a handful of faxes during the last year, I am not sure that I have actually received a fax at work during the last six months (or during the last year, for that matter). Anyway, the message set to press some buttons (as one would do to use a fax on a shared voice phoneline), but somehow, I did not have a fax connected. So far as I recall, it wasn't that I was actually expecting any faxes, but it appears that I heard the answering macine go off. (These days, I give out my more permanent cell phone number rather than my home phone, so there is usually no reason for me to answer the phone at home--statistically, it is very likely to be a wrong number or a "spam" call).

Does it take an eccentric to have a nightmare about fax machines? It probably doesn't. These things are probably a very rare event that happens with the same limited frequency among eccentrics, "normal" people, and "others." That is, the null hypothesis that the conditional probability is the same for all three groups is probably the same. The event probably follows a Poisson Distribution.

The lesser of seventeen evils

The title of this entry seems rather pessimistic at first glance, but it should actually be a cause for optimism. Here's why:

Assuming that evils are normally distributed, one is a lot better off having seventeen--rather than two--to pick from. This is evident in the following chart, ranking random samples of the lesser of two, and seventeen, evils, each with an expected mean of 1.5:


On avearage, the lesser of two evils was 1.229. The lesser of seventeen evils was only .534.

Why the number seventeen? I could say that seventeen is the largest prime number less than nineteen, or the third smallest prime number that can be expressed in two digits, but neither of those two reasons would be particularly persuasive. Seventeen was just the number I thought of.

I'll take that as a compliment

Yesterday, a student sent me an e-mail saying "You are the [excrement]." At first I thought this was a student who was about to complain about her project scores. It turned out to be a highly complimentary note, however.

This appears to be a new--or at least new to me--piece of slang. I am well aware that, for many years, that referring to a meal that someone has prepared as "baad" is actually used as a tremendous compliment in African American slang.

It's just difficult for me to imagine how being thought of as excrement can be complimentary, but one lives and learns--or at least should live and learn--every day.

United Airlines, the means-end chain, and theory of mind

My all time favorite advertisement is the United Airlines black-and-white cartoon ad featuring a man flying out for a job interview, leaving behind his dog while he goes. It has been posted on Youtube at http://youtube.com/watch?v=FDZAgBDf3Qo . (A close second is the Wausau Insurance ad featuring Fred Fox, the very concise "world renowned expert on efficiency and effectiveness.")

The United Ad is illustrative of important issues for both marketing and autism. It is interesting how these illustrations are related.

In terms of marketing, this is the strongest illustration I have seen yet of the means-end chain. It is made clear that the passenger flies not for the purpose of flying, but rather to get to a destination to undertake activities. This illustrated in the closing comment: "Where you go in life is up to you. There is one airline that can take you there: United."

In terms of autism, this is a splendid illustration of the idea of theory of mind. People on the autism spectrum often have difficulty relating to what other people are thinking, and sometimes even to the idea that others have ideas and thoughts different from one's own. In this ad, we trace a man's experience with some interesting cues to his thoughts and feelings. The only spoken words are the closing comment mentioned above. It is apparent, however, that the man is quite overwhelmed with the large building in which his job interview takes place. It appears that he is asked tough questions in the interview. On the way down from the elevator, the man clearly looks exhausted, dejected, and unoptimistic. As he walks on the street, however, the man's cell phone suddenly rings. Seeing the man's jump with joy, it appears he got the job.

Another brush with the iPodless life

Yesterday, my iPod stopped functioning. It was not easy to find repair information on Apple's web site. In fact, I did not find out what to do. It appears, however, that it was my charger that was the problem. When I recharged while driving, the iPod came back to life!

Oops!

My students are not going to like this! Last night, I had a dream that I was going back to school--I think in International Business--at UCLA! It actually did not feel like a nightmare.

Paying attention

My mother once reported an experience riding with a rather obnoxious woman who kept telling her horse "Pay attention!" My mother said that she continuoulsy held her tongue rather than asking, "How much does attention cost?"

In the news today, there is a story about paying attention that does not answer that question, either. It was interesting to hear, however, that some French hotel woman had been given a forty-five day jail sentence for driving with a suspended license. Showing some measure of remorse, the hotel woman allegedly said that "I'm very sorry and from now on I'm going to pay complete attention to everything..."

I'm so blogging about this!

That's what I heard someone saying today. Shows some interesting linguistic developments over the last decade!

Price sensitivity (high, moderate, low)

In a sample assignment I posted to illustrate an assignment on segmentation, targeting, positioning, I included price sensitivity as a variable, listing the values of high, moderate, and low. The vast majority of students seem to have jumpled on the bandwagon, including this variable with exactly these three levels. Does this segmentation division seem to be rather universally applicable, or are we dealing with a strong force of conformity?

Unprofitable social irresponsibility

A very insightful ed-op piece in Forbes, written by two Marshall professors, suggests that paying low wages may not be such a bright idea after all. Right on!
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2007/04/24/corporate-layoffs-costs-oped-cx_jot_0425jobs.html

No coffee--at Starbucks?

Last week-end, I attended the Marketing Educators' Association conference in San Antonio. (A previous post touchingly detailed my iPodless existence there).

One attendee related his experience of having gone to Starbucks only to be told that they had no coffee. At first we were indignant, finding it difficult to believe that this chain would fail to deliver on its core competency. Of course, one might be prepared for the unusual since a sissy place like Starbucks is not all that congruent with the idea of Texas but then again, there is some diversity in most areas. After thinking about the issue for some time, I started to realize that maybe my "paradigm" may at best a bit traditonal and quite possibly overly too narrow. Wouldn't it broaden a person's perspective to drink some exotic tea, or some imaginary berry mix, rather than the habitual coffee? And if they happen to be out of those beverages, too, what is wrong with a plain cup of water? Isn't Starbucks mostly about the atmosphere?

What was wrong with me? I stand corrected!

CNBC Interview With Dr. Vernon Smith

Those of you who have not yet had the chance to view the 2005 CNBC interview with Dr. Vernon Smith, 2002Nobel Laureate in economics, may want to check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6laOv94VUU .

Personal belongings and eye contact

A new message repeatedly relayed over the PA system at LAX (at least in the American terminal) calls on passengers to "Maintain eye contact with your personal belongings at all times."

This raises two questions:

1. Is this eye contact supposed to be mutual?
2. Is there such a thing as "impersonal belongings?"
   

The iPodless life

Last Wednesday night, as I was waiting for the airport shuttle to pick me up, I realized that I had left my iPod back at my office. Not a particularly unusual thing to happen to a member of my profession, but a matter of some concern nevertheless. This meant that I would not have an opportunity to listen in the airport, on the plane, and during any other appropriate moments during my conference.

Fortunately, I did have some Supreme Court oral arguments on a thumb drive that I could play on my notebook computer. Unfortunately, I did not get the occasion to listen when it would have been convenient to boot up.

The iPodless life is definitely not something that I would like to endure frequently, but I managed this time.

Qualities of a good student

Back in high school, a teacher once posted a list of attributes identified by writers of an essay on the topic of "Qualities of a Good Student." I do not remember most of the entries, but three that I recall are:

1. "Knows how to add and subtract."
2. "Shows a new kid where the bathroom is."
3. "One who is perfect and does no wrong."